Chino Tiềm năng - mối đe dọa trên biển và làm sao để chống đỡ ?

9 tàu đánh cá của Tung Của Nhân Dân đi trộm cá và bị bắt
9 Chinese fishing ships captured by Peruvian Navy

from the Peruvian news Nov-9-2004
9 fishing ships, 6 Chinese and 3 Korean (all owned by chinese fishing companys) were caught and captured by the Peruvian Navy illegally fishing inside the 200 miles of Peruvian jurisdiction.
the operation involved 3 Missile Frigates (Lupo class) 2 subs (209 class) and aircraft of the Peruvian Naval Aviation.
it was known that these fishing ships routinely crossed the limits under the cover of the night and are backed by modern technology to detect and evade Navy patrols by returning to international waters where 2 factory ships waited 30 miles outside the limits to receive and process the "cargo".
it is also knows that this "cat and mouse" game was being played for a few "months".
some chinese crews attempted to resist boarding by Peruvian Navy comandos but no major incidents to regret, the crews (192 total) rights were fully respected.
the point exact of the capture occured at 194 miles (6 inside the limit), the operation took 2 weeks between laying down the plan, setting the "trap" and the actual capture.
2 fishing ships are being towed by BAP. Carvajal and BAP Villavicencio (Lupo class Frigates) as their crews sabotaged their engines to prevent being taken to port, BAP Mariategui is the third frigate involved in the operation.
the first ship captured was the "Zhou-yu-leng 09", this ship performed some "dangerous evasive manouvers" (dangerous for its own 30 crew members) and ignored all warnings to stop, said a Peruvian Navy Official
the fines for illegal fishing of this size could climb to 2.5 million dollars, was mentioned on the newscast.
http://www.marina.mil.pe/noticiasdeldia/191104_pesca_ilegal.htm

Đài Loan đang lo ngại việc Tung Của Nhân Dân hiện đại hoá quân đội.
Taiwan Remains in Sights of China''s Modernizing Military
(Source: Voice of America news; issued Dec. 1, 2004)
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian''s decision to hold a national referendum on revising the constitution in 2006 has further strained relations between the island and mainland China. China considers Taiwan a renegade province and says any moves toward independence will be countered by force. Analysts say the relationship between Beijing and Tapei will continue to be strained.

In recent years, China''s military has pursued a course of modernization, upgrading weapons systems and military command communications. Daniel Blumenthal, a former U.S. Defense Department official, says the People''s Liberation Army has Taiwan uppermost on its mind.

"And this means that we will continue to see an ambitious and accelerated buildup focused on the short-term goal of coercing Taiwan to come to Beijing''s terms," he said.

According to Mr. Blumenthal, China is investing heavily in defense systems that will subdue Taiwan and deter the United States from entering into the conflict. Mr. Blumenthal joined other defense analysts Tuesday at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington for a round-table discussion on the future of China''s military.

Harvey Feldman, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative research organization in Washington, argues that, although China wants reunification with Taiwan and will soon have the military capability to do so by force, an invasion of the island is not in Beijing''s long-term interests.

"They want reunification," said Mr. Feldman. "They want reunification with a vibrant Taiwan that adds something beyond a name to the motherland. Reunification with a smoking hulk, I don''t think, gets them very much."

But other analysts believe that China may conclude the only way to bring Taipei back under Beijing''s control is through force. Scot Tanner, a political scientist with RAND Corporation, says China tried to exert economic pressure on Taiwan''s business community during last year''s presidential election. In spite of that, pro-independence candidate Chen Shui-bian won.

"That can''t help but raise in the back of your mind the question that if they don''t think the economic levers of influence are going to work what methods of influence might be left?" asked Mr. Tanner.

According to the analysts, China is also laboring under a misperception that the United States doesn''t value its commitment to Taiwan as much as China values reunification. The Heritage Foundation''s Harvey Feldman says the Bush administration must convince Beijing that this perception is false.

"Could the United States really stand by and watch democracy in Taiwan go down the tubes? What would happen to our position vis-�-vis Japan,Philippines, and other places in Southeast Asia? How would we be seen? The fact of the matter is, push come to shove, we will have to stand up for Taiwan and we ought to make that clear and we are making it clear," said Mr. Feldman.

However, analysts say the United States must also emphasize to Taipei and President Chen that any attempt to draft a new constitution that would declare independence is unhelpful. Given the mutual mistrust and suspicion on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, they urge all parties involved to use caution.

Nov 30, 2004
Give up on China peace talks: Chen aide
Taipei - TAIWAN President Chen Shui-bian should give up trying to get China to talk peace and focus instead on rewriting the Constitution to prepare Taiwan to declare statehood, one of his senior advisers said yesterday.
Mr Koo Kwang-ming, a wealthy pro-independence diehard who helped finance Mr Chen''s campaigns, said the President had made a ''big mistake'' in calling for peace talks with Beijing and should now use his second, and final, four-year term to change the Constitution, making it his legacy to the self-ruled, democratic island.
''Taiwan is taking the path towards independence and this cannot be stopped,'' Mr Koo, 78, said in an interview.
Mr Chen, who narrowly won re-election in March in a controversial poll, has said he needs to wrest a majority from the Kuomintang-led opposition in the Dec 11 parliamentary election to ensure two-thirds legislative support for a new Constitution, which he has said would not touch on sensitive issues of sovereignty.
China has said changing Taiwan''s Constitution would be a dangerous step towards declaring independence formally.
''As Taiwan moves towards independence, tensions between the two sides will inevitably escalate. At that time, China will have to choose between going to war and talking to us. They are not stupid,'' said Mr Koo.
China would not risk destroying an economy it has worked so hard to build to wage a war that could provoke international intervention, he added.
For now, Mr Chen should put a resumption of talks and closer economic ties with the mainland on the back-burner, he added. -- REUTERS

Bước đi mới của Nhật Bản đây, chác là Nhật cay cú vụ tàu ngầm
của BC xâm phạm lảnh hải Nhật đây mà.
Nhựt Đặt Cơ Sở Tình Báo Mới Theo Dõi Biển Đông Hoa Lục
TOKYO -- Nhựt đang nghiên cứu mở rộng hệ thống và tầm phát thu sóng từ trường để thu thập tin tình báo của TC cũng như theo dõi hoạt động của tàu chiến TC ở Biển Đông của TC. Đó là tường thuật của điện báo People Daily Online.
Trung tâm tình báo ấy đặt tại đảo Miyako Island thuộc Okinawa của Nhựùt. Trung tâm này có nhiệm vụ bắt tin của tàu chiến và phi cơ chiến đấu của TC, sẽ hoàn thành và đi vào hoạt động công suất 100% vào năm 2008. Nhựt gần đây cũng tung tàu chiến nhiều trên vùng biển Hoa Nhựt, tạo nhiều tranh cãi và đưa đến hội nghị dàn xếp hồi tháng rồi..
Nhưng tin thêm cho biết trung tâm tình báo Miyado dường như làm việc quá tãi nên Nhựt đang lập thêm một trung tâm khác ở Đông Nam của đảo Miyako mà nhựt báo Sankei Shibum có đề cập. Nhựt cũng điều ra đảo Mikayo thêm 2.300 bộ binh để bảo vệ an ninh thêm cho đảo có hai trung tâm tình báo quan trọng nằy vì 2 trung tâm chịu trách nhiệm quân báo khắp Biển Đông của TC.

Nhìn vào tuyên bố này đủ thấy là Chino, đang them mua vũ khĩ hoặc đổi trác các thứ mà chino muốn như thế nào.
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Trung Quốc muốn EU chấm dứt cấm vận vũ khí
22:20'' 03/12/2004 (GMT+7)

Thứ trưởng Ngoại giao Trung Quốc Trương Diệp Tuế
Trung Quốc vừa lên tiếng cảnh báo Liên minh châu Âu (EU) rằng họ sẽ không phát huy được lợi thế của các mối quan hệ song phương trừ khi lệnh cấm vận vũ khí được dỡ bỏ.
EU áp đặt lệnh cấm buôn bán vũ khí giữa các nước châu Âu với Bắc Kinh kể từ năm 1989, khi xảy ra vụ Thiên An Môn. Thứ trưởng Ngoại giao Trung Quốc Trương Diệp Tuế cho rằng "lệnh cấm vận đó đã lỗi thời" và có thể cản trở sự hợp tác giữa EU với nước này.
"Nếu lệnh cấm vẫn tiếp tục, các mối quan hệ song phương sẽ bị ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng," ông Trương Diệp Tuế nói với các phóng viên, "và chúng tôi coi đó là một sự phân biệt đối xử trong quan hệ quốc tế".
Ông cũng cho biết việc dỡ bỏ lệnh cấm sẽ được bàn bạc thêm trong cuộc họp thượng đỉnh Trung Quốc - EU tại Hà Lan trong hai ngày từ 7 - 9/12 sắp tới. Trung Quốc đã yêu cầu các nước này dỡ bỏ cấm vận nhân dịp tham dự Hội nghị thượng đỉnh Á - Âu tại Hà Nội hồi tháng 10 (ASEM5) nhưng không thành.
Gần đây, Đức và Pháp đã đề nghị dỡ bỏ cấm vận với hy vọng tìm kiếm được những hợp đồng bán vũ khí lớn sang thị trường Trung Quốc giàu tiềm năng, song Mỹ và một số nước EU khác chưa đồng ý. Washington thậm chí còn doạ sẽ không chuyển giao các công nghệ vũ khí mới cho các đối tác châu Âu nếu họ tự ý phá vỡ lệnh cấm vận.
(NHQ - Theo BBC

Thế các bác thử tính trường hợp nó mang khoảng 1-2 triệu quân sang rồi đột ngột tuyên bố đầu hàng thì ta lấy gì nuôi chúng nó???

Janes Defence tiên đoán nền kinh tế Tung Của Nhân Dân đang gặp khó khăn. nếu nổi loạn cứ tiếp tục như vậy thì Tung Của Nhân Dân rất có thể sẽ có nội chiến. Lúc đó VN sẽ lại phải mở hầu bao để đón dân tị nạn
http://www.janes.com/regional_news/asia_pacific/news/fr/fr041124_1_n.shtml
The giant wakes - The Chinese poor demand their share
In recent months, Foreign Report has issued warnings about the state of the Chinese economy. By all accounts it is enjoying a boom but there are clear signs that the economy is running into trouble. Protests and disorders are spreading in urban factories and through the rural community.
In October, sociologist Lu Xueyi wrote in the China Daily of the social inequalities operating in the country and warned: "China is at the crossroads. It can either smoothly evolve into a medium-level developed country or it can slide into stagnation and chaos."
There are limited references *****ch events in the Chinese press, although it seems the latest public order disturbances are just the tip of the iceberg of social unrest that may lie in the path of the nation''s long-running economic boom, which has served to highlight an increasing social inequality in China.
According to the Communist Party magazine Outlook, there were more than 58,000 demonstrations throughout China last year, or around 160 a day, and these protests are becoming ever more serious.
For example, on 29 October, 100,000 farmers turned out in Hanyuan County in Sichuan to protest about the building of the huge Pubugou hydroelectric dam on the Dadu river, and the consequent displacement of thousands of farmers without, as they saw it, adequate compensation. Some 10,000 police were unable to maintain order, leading to the deployment of another 10,000 troops the following day. In a more serious incident at the end of October, 10,000 armed police and the imposition of martial law were required to quell violent clashes in Zhongmou county in central Henan province. Before order was restored, official figures say that seven people were killed in the dispute, while the New York Times reports as many as 148 dead, including 18 policemen.

Tin về vụ tàu ngầm của Tung Của Nhân Dân vừa rồi này. Có 2 giả thuyết trong vụ này. Giả thuyết 1 là Tung Của Nhân Dân để Mỹ và Nhật tìm ra tàu mình như là để đe doạ và giả thuyết thứ 2 là Mỹ và Nhật đã thừa biết chiếc tàu này ở đâu và đi đâu và hợp lại làm bẽ mặt Tung Của Nhân Dân. Giả thuyết 1 hơi yếu vì chẳng ai dại gì để đối phương phát hiện ra tàu ngầm của mình vì như vậy đối phương sẽ biết hết mọi khả năng của tàu ngầm mình. Mà tàu ngầm đã bị phát hiện thì thường là thua.
" Report: Chinese submarine that infiltrated Japanese waters had circled Guam
Tuesday December 7, 12:24 PM
Report: Chinese submarine that infiltrated Japanese waters had circled Guam
A Chinese submarine that infiltrated Japanese waters last month was on its way back from a mission near the U.S. territory of Guam, believed to be a warning to America of China''s military power if war breaks out over Taiwan, a newspaper reported Tuesday.
Japan''s navy went on alert on Nov. 10 when the submarine was first detected in the country''s waters between the southern island of Okinawa and Taiwan. The vessel left after just two hours and headed north, shadowed by Japanese reconnaissance aircraft and naval destroyers.
In its Tuesday e***ion, the major Asahi daily cited unidentified Japanese government officials as saying the submarine had set out from the northeastern Chinese city of Qingdao in mid-October.
Monitoring by the U.S. and Japanese militaries and Japan''s coast guard as well as satellite images allowed Japan to almost completely track the submarine during its 30-day journey, the report said.
The vessel reached the waters near Guam in early November after passing the Okinawa group of islands, the paper said. It then headed back northwest after circling Guam, coming within 150 kilometers (90 miles) of the Pacific island, the report said.
Tokyo believes the ship was on a mission to warn the U.S. military of its nuclear submarine capabilities in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, the Asahi said.
Taiwan and China split amid civil war, but Beijing regards the self-ruled, democratic island as part of its territory and has threatened to attack it if it declares independence. The United States would be Taiwan''s most likely defender.
Defense Minister Yoshinori Ono declined to comment on the report at a news conference Tuesday.
Capt. Richelle Dowdell, a spokeswoman for U.S. Forces Japan, said the military didn''t discuss operational security issues and couldn''t comment on whether it had detected the submarine''s movements near Guam.
China has not acknowledged ownership of the vessel, but Japanese officials said after the incident that Beijing admitted one of its nuclear submarines had strayed into Japan''s waters.
Guam is a U.S. territory about 5,900 kilometers (3,700 miles) southwest of Hawaii. It is 2,500 kilometers (1,500 miles) southwest of Tokyo. "

chi tiết về việc Mỹ gia tăng các hoạt động quân sự ở Thái Bình Dương
http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Dec/06/ln/ln07p.html
osted on: Monday, December 6, 2004
Hawai''i part of ''strategic triangle''
By William Cole
Advertiser Military Writer
The four-star general in charge of Pacific Air Forces said Guam is growing in importance as a forward base, Alaska has wide-ranging capability, and Hawai''i will be the "keyhole" through which Pacific policy will be funneled.

Gen. Paul V. Hester, chief of the Pacific Air Forces command based at Hickam Air Force Base, told The Advertiser''s e***orial board that he expects "modest" growth at Hickam. Gregory Yamamoto ? The Honolulu Advertiser
"Hawai''i is the policy piece, so it starts to become very clear that Guam, Hawai''i and Alaska form a very strategic triangle for our forces," said Gen. Paul V. Hester.
Hester, who five months ago took over the Pacific Air Forces command based at Hickam Air Force Base, has B-52 and B-2 stealth bombers in Guam, is looking at sending fighters there, and expects to have Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles on the U.S. territory later in the decade.
Eight C-17 Globemaster III cargo carriers will start arriving at Hickam in January of 2006, but beyond that, Hester does not foresee much more short-term growth here.
"I do not see any downsizing of any mission sets at Hickam, and the C-17 piece is obviously a growth at Hickam," Hester said last week during a meeting with The Advertiser''s e***orial board.
The only other Air Force increase Hester said he could see for Hawai''i would be the result of consolidating the headquarters of the Fifth Air Force in Yokota, Japan, and the 13th Air Force in Guam to create a new warfighting headquarters with about 150 people, either here or in Guam.
Air Force officials are in final discussions as to which location will be selected.
"So I think that you can see that we will have a modest growth out at Hickam, not a tremendous growth," Hester said.
A worldwide reorganization of U.S. military forces ?" including moving 70,000 troops out of countries including Germany and South Korea ?" comes as a new round of base closures is planned and services look for ways to cut costs as wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have eaten into their budgets.
But there''s also a greater emphasis on the Pacific with the growing power of China, North Korea an uncertain nuclear threat, and the potential for terrorism throughout the region.
Pacific Air Forces has approximately 45,000 military and civilian personnel at nine major locations and numerous smaller ones, primarily in Hawai''i, Alaska, Japan, Guam and South Korea. Approximately 300 fighter and attack aircraft are assigned to the command.
Guam, 3,000 miles west of Hawai''i, and within much closer striking range to Asia, is seeing a military buildup with three attack submarines, six B-52s temporarily at Andersen Air Force Base, and the construction of a $32 million hangar for the B-2 bomber.
Because Guam is a U.S. territory, it is a secure long-term investment, without tenancy problems like those experienced in the Philippines or Okinawa.
"I expect to see, let''s say over the next five to 10 years ... our interests and our desire to reposition assets, people, into Guam is going to grow," Hester said.
Hester expects the bombers, moved to Guam to shore up firepower in the Pacific as the United States has fought wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, to remain at least late into spring.
He said he will decide whether they should be there semi-permanently on rotations to Guam and then back to Mainland bases for several weeks at a time.
Eight of the Air Force''s latest-generation cargo carriers, the C-17, are expected to begin arriving at Hickam ?" one per month, starting January of 2006.
That will be followed by eight more C-17s at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska.
"So the Pacific over the next two years picks up 16 C-17s, and as you know, it is the backbone and growing inventory of our strategic airlift," Hester said.
As part of what''s called the "Future Total Force," the Air Force is working to bring together active duty and reserve components, and with the Hickam C-17 basing, "We''re on the leading edge of that," Hester said.
Pilots and maintenance crews will include active duty and Hawai''i Air National Guard airmen.
Ground was broken in August on $190 million in construction projects for the C-17s. A total of 405 new active duty positions and about 50 Air Guard positions are being created by the basing.
Reach William Cole at wcole@honoluluadvertiser.com or 525-545