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1.3.

Kiktev et al. (2003) compared station observations of
extreme events with the simulations of an atmosphere-only
GCM (Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model version 3; HadAM3)
forced by prescribed oceanic forcing and anthropogenic
radiative forcing during 1950 to 1995. The indices of extreme
events they used were those proposed by Frich et al. (2002).
They found that inclusion of anthropogenic radiative forcing
was required to reproduce observed changes in temperature
extremes, particularly at large spatial scales. The decrease in
the number of frost days in Southern Australia simulated by
HadAM3 with anthropogenic forcing is in good agreement with
the observations. The increase in the number of warm nights
over Eurasia is poorly simulated when anthropogenic forcing
is not included, but the inclusion of anthropogenic forcing
improves the modelled trend patterns over western Russia and
reproduces the general increase in the occurrence of warm
nights over much of the NH.
Meehl et al. (2004) compared the number of frost days
simulated by the PCM model with observations. The 20th-
century simulations include the variations in solar, volcano,
sulphate aerosol, ozone and greenhouse gas forcing. Both
model simulations and observations show that the number of
frost days decreased by two days per decade in the western USA
during the 20th century. The model simulations do not agree
with observations in the southeastern USA, where the model
simulates a decrease in the number of frost days in this region in
the 20th century, while observations indicate an increase in this
region. Meehl et al. (2004) argue that this discrepancy could be
due to the model?Ts inability to simulate the impact of El Niño
events on the number of frost days in the southeastern USA.
Meehl and Tebaldi (2004) compared the heat waves simulated
by the PCM with observations. They de ned a heat wave as
the three consecutive warmest nights during the year. During
the period 1961 to 1990, there is good agreement between the
model and observations (NCEP reanalysis).
Kharin et al. (2005) examined the simulations of temperature
and precipitation extremes for AMIP-2 models, some of which
are atmospheric components of coupled models used in this
assessment. They found that models simulate the temperature
extremes, especially the warm extremes, reasonably well.
Models have serious de ciencies in simulating precipitation
extremes, particularly in the tropics. Vavrus et al. (2006) used
daily values of 20th-century integrations from seven models.
They de ned a cold air outbreak as ?~an occurrence of two
or more consecutive days during which the local mean daily
surface air temperature is at least two standard deviations
below the local winter mean temperature?T. They found that the
climate models reproduce the location and magnitude of cold
air outbreaks in the current climate.
Researchers have also established relationships between
large-scale circulation features and cold air outbreaks or heat
waves. For example, Vavrus et al. (2006) found that ?~the favored
regions of cold air outbreaks are located near and downstream



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Climate Models and Their Evaluation


from preferred locations of atmosphere blocking?T. Likewise, Meehl and Tebaldi (2004) found that heat waves over Europe and North America were associated with changes in the 500 hPa circulation pattern.

Chơi scietific paper thế này, hehe, ai dám dịch đây