Tin Tình báo- Tin về tình hình quân sự ASEAN (P1)

hy vọng NC sẽ mua vài cái tàu ngầm của Đức......tàu ngầm của Đức được đánh giá khá tốt, thậm chí còn hơn Kilo nhiều.

ghẻ đang tính dùng tàu ngầm để đối chọi với tàu sân bay Mẽo như Liên Xô ngày trước từng làm này
The Chinese Dragon submerges
By Phar Kim Beng
TOKYO - Over the past decade China has been expanding and enhancing its maritime forces to make them blue-water capable. A major focus is submarines, the Chinese Dragon U-boat. An obvious inference is the use of subs in the narrow, shallow Taiwan Strait in a possible conflict with "renegade" Taiwan, but military analysts say submarines are virtually obsolete and would easily be killed by ships and planes in the strait.
Still, the submarine, that sleek high-tech military platform, is an important symbol of prestige for both China and Taiwan, where the Legislative Yuan is battling over the military budget. Both Beijing and Taiwan are acquiring the vessels, despite what may be the futility of their deployment in a conflict.
A Chinese appraisal of future naval warfare in 2001, translated by the Foreign Broadcasting International Service of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), concludes that "the prospect for using submarines is good, because of their covertness and power. Submarines are menaces existing anywhere, at any time." In the same report, another Chinese analyst affirmed that "submarines are the maritime weapons posing the greatest threat to an aircraft carrier formation. Submarines are also our navy''s core force."
According to US and Taiwan intelligence estimates, China has about 70 submarines (virtually all conventional), it is building more and buying more from Russia. It has one nuclear submarine, two more being built and eight Kilo-class diesels on order from Russia, to be delivered in 2005 (Russian sources) or 2007 (Chinese sources). David Shambaugh, a leading military analyst at George Washington University, confirms at least 70 submarines, basing his figure on the authoritative International Institute for Strategic Studies on military balance for his article in the Washington Quarterly in 2002.
According to Sid Trevethan, an Alaska-based specialist on the Chinese military, Beijing has deployed 57 submarines, including one Xia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine, five Han-class sub, four Kilo-class subs, seven Songs, 18 Mings, and and 22 Soviet-designed Romeos.
Writing in the Spring 2004 issue of the journal International Security, Lyle Goldstein and William Murray affirmed: "Contrary to Western forecasts, China''s confidence in imported Kilos has not halted domestic production of the new Song-class diesel submarine. In ad***ion, China''s nuclear propulsion program will soon field the first of its second-generation vessels, which will include both attack submarines and strategic missile boats. Finally, the People''s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is undertaking an overhaul of the submarine force''s weaponry, training, recruitment, and doctrine."
The conservative Washington Times reported in July that to the surprise of US observers, China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that combine Russian technology and Chinese engineering.
Indeed, China is only in the middle of extending the size and range of its submarine fleet, while acquiring modern weapons to transform its fleet from a coastal defense navy to a force capable of sustained open-ocean operations.
These developments have increased the security concerns of Japan, Taiwan and the United States.
After all, even if China took at least two decades to achieve open-ocean operations, Beijing has the option to develop some midget submarines that would tap into underwater communication lines or get up close to a coastline to land its special forces.
"It is always a threat," said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who was director of national-security studies at the US Military Academy. In a study on Chinese submarines, co-authored with Lyle Goldstein in the Spring 2004 issue of International Security, he said, "The subs can put special operations teams in place, they can target aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the Chinese nuclear [weapons] capability, there are different threat categories altogether."
Nor is there a limit to what China wants to achieve with its submarine forces. In ad***ion to its one nuclear-powered submarine, which has been ridden with troubles that confine it to the port, China is building two new U-boats.
China''s Type-093 sub is believed to be based on the Russian Victor-III class, while the Pentagon believes that its Type-094 attack submarine with a finished hull will be ready for deployment in 2005.
Regardless of type or form, however, most military analysts agree that Chinese submarines could create serious trouble during a regional conflict, either by menacing sea lanes or by forcing US aircraft carriers to stay further away from targets for fear of being torpedoed.
In this context, the US, Taiwan and Japan have begun to take China''s submarine forces seriously, especially given Beijing''s option to ally its maritime efforts with North Korea, another country with a massive, though archaic, and still deadly submarine fleet mostly inherited from World War II.
A Pentagon report published in May stated that China is changing from a coastal defense force to one employing "active offshore defense".
"This change in operations requires newer, more modern warships and submarines capable of operating at greater distances from China''s coast for longer periods," the report said, noting that submarine construction is a top priority.
Indeed, over the last two months, the US Navy has begun conducting tests in the Sea of Japan, as well as similar trials off Hawaii, to test the prototype of a detection device that analyzes submarines'' underwater color patterns and detects color gradations too faint for the human eye to detect.
Early versions of the device called the Littoral Airborne Sensor Hyperspectral, or LASH, have spotted whales and submarines below the surface. Current detection methods used by the US Navy rely on sonar and other methods to "hear" the location of enemy submarines. The LASH system is designed to permit the Navy to "see" the submarines.
Japan is wary of China''s efforts and has fully supported such detection exercises, since Chinese submarines have been spotted off the coast of Japan with increased frequency. Indeed, China has even begun to conduct resource surveys in the vicinity of Okino-Torishima, 1,700 kilometers south of Tokyo.
The Chinese survey activities have been undertaken within Japan''s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in violation of the Law of the Sea, according to the Maritime Safety Agency of Japan. China, however, has insisted that Okino-Torishima should not be considered an island, but a cluster of rocks not qualified for EEZ status, as stipulated by the Law of the Sea.
While these submarines, Tokyo military experts believe, do not have any offensive intention in the immediate or short term, they are nonetheless positioned to increase China''s intelligence-gathering activities and to explore the opportunity to block US naval forces in the event of a Taiwan conflict. China has the nasty habit of surfacing its submarine fleets off the coast of the Sea of Japan, as in November 2003, 25 miles offshore.
Taiwan also is taking the Chinese submarine threat seriously. Taiwan is severely disadvantaged, although the Taiwan Strait is narrow and relatively shallow because of the continental shelf, making it difficult for submarines to operate and hide.
According to Shambaugh, the China military analyst, Taiwan''s two antiquated World War II-vintage (Guppy class), and two Dutch-built Zvaardis diesel submarines are no match for China''s 70 submarines, were a conflict to break out.
Indeed, Taiwan''s airborne anti-submarine warfare capability also remains limited, this despite the fact that the shallow Taiwan Strait actually gives Taiwan the military advantage.Taiwan is taking steps to strengthen its submarine forces accordingly. To begin with, the Taiwan navy has signed a submarine-rescue agreement with the US. According to Chinese-language news reports, the agreement states that the US is required to send a deep submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV) to Taiwan in the shortest time possible if any of Taiwan''s four submarines become disabled.
That China is improving its submarine and naval capability has clearly made Taiwan wary. In October 2003, the Taiwan parliament was informed that a Chinese destroyer from the North Sea fleet had, for the first time, sailed through the waters east of Taiwan to join exercises in the South China Sea. "This has never happened before," said Defense Minister Tang Yao-Ming. President Chen Shui-bian repeatedly has urged Taiwan to improve its naval combat readiness.
Chen did not go into details about Taiwan''s own naval buildup, but its highlights include the purchase of four US second-hand Kidd-class destroyers and eight conventional submarines. US President George W Bush in April 2001 approved the sale of eight diesel-electric submarines as part of Washington''s most comprehensive arms package to Taipei since 1992.
The multibillion-dollar arms package, including submarines, has generated a fierce debate in Taiwan''s Legislative Yuan, or parliament.
Although the chances are slim that China and Taiwan would return to the heyday of Cold War submarine warfare, when submarines pursued one another under the sea, the exponential expansion of Chinese submarine forces clearly has not been taken lightly.
Phar Kim Beng is a regular contributor to Asia Times Online.
Related link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FJ28Ad04.html

ghẻ đang tính dùng tàu ngầm để đối chọi với tàu sân bay Mẽo như Liên Xô ngày trước từng làm này
The Chinese Dragon submerges
By Phar Kim Beng
TOKYO - Over the past decade China has been expanding and enhancing its maritime forces to make them blue-water capable. A major focus is submarines, the Chinese Dragon U-boat. An obvious inference is the use of subs in the narrow, shallow Taiwan Strait in a possible conflict with "renegade" Taiwan, but military analysts say submarines are virtually obsolete and would easily be killed by ships and planes in the strait.
Still, the submarine, that sleek high-tech military platform, is an important symbol of prestige for both China and Taiwan, where the Legislative Yuan is battling over the military budget. Both Beijing and Taiwan are acquiring the vessels, despite what may be the futility of their deployment in a conflict.
A Chinese appraisal of future naval warfare in 2001, translated by the Foreign Broadcasting International Service of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), concludes that "the prospect for using submarines is good, because of their covertness and power. Submarines are menaces existing anywhere, at any time." In the same report, another Chinese analyst affirmed that "submarines are the maritime weapons posing the greatest threat to an aircraft carrier formation. Submarines are also our navy''s core force."
According to US and Taiwan intelligence estimates, China has about 70 submarines (virtually all conventional), it is building more and buying more from Russia. It has one nuclear submarine, two more being built and eight Kilo-class diesels on order from Russia, to be delivered in 2005 (Russian sources) or 2007 (Chinese sources). David Shambaugh, a leading military analyst at George Washington University, confirms at least 70 submarines, basing his figure on the authoritative International Institute for Strategic Studies on military balance for his article in the Washington Quarterly in 2002.
According to Sid Trevethan, an Alaska-based specialist on the Chinese military, Beijing has deployed 57 submarines, including one Xia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine, five Han-class sub, four Kilo-class subs, seven Songs, 18 Mings, and and 22 Soviet-designed Romeos.
Writing in the Spring 2004 issue of the journal International Security, Lyle Goldstein and William Murray affirmed: "Contrary to Western forecasts, China''s confidence in imported Kilos has not halted domestic production of the new Song-class diesel submarine. In ad***ion, China''s nuclear propulsion program will soon field the first of its second-generation vessels, which will include both attack submarines and strategic missile boats. Finally, the People''s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is undertaking an overhaul of the submarine force''s weaponry, training, recruitment, and doctrine."
The conservative Washington Times reported in July that to the surprise of US observers, China had built new Yuan-class diesel submarines that combine Russian technology and Chinese engineering.
Indeed, China is only in the middle of extending the size and range of its submarine fleet, while acquiring modern weapons to transform its fleet from a coastal defense navy to a force capable of sustained open-ocean operations.
These developments have increased the security concerns of Japan, Taiwan and the United States.
After all, even if China took at least two decades to achieve open-ocean operations, Beijing has the option to develop some midget submarines that would tap into underwater communication lines or get up close to a coastline to land its special forces.
"It is always a threat," said William Taylor, a retired Army colonel who was director of national-security studies at the US Military Academy. In a study on Chinese submarines, co-authored with Lyle Goldstein in the Spring 2004 issue of International Security, he said, "The subs can put special operations teams in place, they can target aircraft carriers, locate other targets, and with the Chinese nuclear [weapons] capability, there are different threat categories altogether."
Nor is there a limit to what China wants to achieve with its submarine forces. In ad***ion to its one nuclear-powered submarine, which has been ridden with troubles that confine it to the port, China is building two new U-boats.
China''s Type-093 sub is believed to be based on the Russian Victor-III class, while the Pentagon believes that its Type-094 attack submarine with a finished hull will be ready for deployment in 2005.
Regardless of type or form, however, most military analysts agree that Chinese submarines could create serious trouble during a regional conflict, either by menacing sea lanes or by forcing US aircraft carriers to stay further away from targets for fear of being torpedoed.
In this context, the US, Taiwan and Japan have begun to take China''s submarine forces seriously, especially given Beijing''s option to ally its maritime efforts with North Korea, another country with a massive, though archaic, and still deadly submarine fleet mostly inherited from World War II.
A Pentagon report published in May stated that China is changing from a coastal defense force to one employing "active offshore defense".
"This change in operations requires newer, more modern warships and submarines capable of operating at greater distances from China''s coast for longer periods," the report said, noting that submarine construction is a top priority.
Indeed, over the last two months, the US Navy has begun conducting tests in the Sea of Japan, as well as similar trials off Hawaii, to test the prototype of a detection device that analyzes submarines'' underwater color patterns and detects color gradations too faint for the human eye to detect.
Early versions of the device called the Littoral Airborne Sensor Hyperspectral, or LASH, have spotted whales and submarines below the surface. Current detection methods used by the US Navy rely on sonar and other methods to "hear" the location of enemy submarines. The LASH system is designed to permit the Navy to "see" the submarines.
Japan is wary of China''s efforts and has fully supported such detection exercises, since Chinese submarines have been spotted off the coast of Japan with increased frequency. Indeed, China has even begun to conduct resource surveys in the vicinity of Okino-Torishima, 1,700 kilometers south of Tokyo.
The Chinese survey activities have been undertaken within Japan''s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in violation of the Law of the Sea, according to the Maritime Safety Agency of Japan. China, however, has insisted that Okino-Torishima should not be considered an island, but a cluster of rocks not qualified for EEZ status, as stipulated by the Law of the Sea.
While these submarines, Tokyo military experts believe, do not have any offensive intention in the immediate or short term, they are nonetheless positioned to increase China''s intelligence-gathering activities and to explore the opportunity to block US naval forces in the event of a Taiwan conflict. China has the nasty habit of surfacing its submarine fleets off the coast of the Sea of Japan, as in November 2003, 25 miles offshore.
Taiwan also is taking the Chinese submarine threat seriously. Taiwan is severely disadvantaged, although the Taiwan Strait is narrow and relatively shallow because of the continental shelf, making it difficult for submarines to operate and hide.
According to Shambaugh, the China military analyst, Taiwan''s two antiquated World War II-vintage (Guppy class), and two Dutch-built Zvaardis diesel submarines are no match for China''s 70 submarines, were a conflict to break out.
Indeed, Taiwan''s airborne anti-submarine warfare capability also remains limited, this despite the fact that the shallow Taiwan Strait actually gives Taiwan the military advantage.Taiwan is taking steps to strengthen its submarine forces accordingly. To begin with, the Taiwan navy has signed a submarine-rescue agreement with the US. According to Chinese-language news reports, the agreement states that the US is required to send a deep submergence rescue vehicle (DSRV) to Taiwan in the shortest time possible if any of Taiwan''s four submarines become disabled.
That China is improving its submarine and naval capability has clearly made Taiwan wary. In October 2003, the Taiwan parliament was informed that a Chinese destroyer from the North Sea fleet had, for the first time, sailed through the waters east of Taiwan to join exercises in the South China Sea. "This has never happened before," said Defense Minister Tang Yao-Ming. President Chen Shui-bian repeatedly has urged Taiwan to improve its naval combat readiness.
Chen did not go into details about Taiwan''s own naval buildup, but its highlights include the purchase of four US second-hand Kidd-class destroyers and eight conventional submarines. US President George W Bush in April 2001 approved the sale of eight diesel-electric submarines as part of Washington''s most comprehensive arms package to Taipei since 1992.
The multibillion-dollar arms package, including submarines, has generated a fierce debate in Taiwan''s Legislative Yuan, or parliament.
Although the chances are slim that China and Taiwan would return to the heyday of Cold War submarine warfare, when submarines pursued one another under the sea, the exponential expansion of Chinese submarine forces clearly has not been taken lightly.
Phar Kim Beng is a regular contributor to Asia Times Online.
Related link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FJ28Ad04.html

Tàu ngừng lắp SU-27SK, theo hợp đồng thì Tàu sẽ lắp 200 chiếc, nhưng mới lắp đến chiếc thứ 95 thì dừng, lý do là loại này không mang được tên lửa diệt hạm, Nga vội mang đến triển lãm China Show loại SKM, loại này mang được tên lửa diệt hạm .....
Theo vremya thì loại SKM đã có một vài nước Đông Nam Á nhòm ngó.

Tàu ngừng lắp SU-27SK, theo hợp đồng thì Tàu sẽ lắp 200 chiếc, nhưng mới lắp đến chiếc thứ 95 thì dừng, lý do là loại này không mang được tên lửa diệt hạm, Nga vội mang đến triển lãm China Show loại SKM, loại này mang được tên lửa diệt hạm .....
Theo vremya thì loại SKM đã có một vài nước Đông Nam Á nhòm ngó.

Ấn Độ phóng thành công tên lửa Brahmos này.
Brahmos Supersonic Cruise Missile Test Fired


(Source: Press Trust of India; issued Nov. 3, 2004)


BALASORE --- Brahmos, the supersonic cruise missile jointly developed by India and Russia, was flight tested from the Bay of Bengal off the Orissa coast today, defence sources said.

The naval version of the missile was test fired from the Indian navy?Ts destroyer INS Rajput at around 11.18 a.m.

Essentially an anti-ship missile, Brahmos can also hit targets on land, the sources said.

Besides, the missile, which has multi-target capability and enjoys a manoeuverable trajectory, can be fired from a mobile platform on land.

The missile has a striking range of 290 km and weighs about three tonnes. It is eight-meter long and carries a conventional warhead weighing about 200 kg, the sources said.

Ấn Độ phóng thành công tên lửa Brahmos này.
Brahmos Supersonic Cruise Missile Test Fired


(Source: Press Trust of India; issued Nov. 3, 2004)


BALASORE --- Brahmos, the supersonic cruise missile jointly developed by India and Russia, was flight tested from the Bay of Bengal off the Orissa coast today, defence sources said.

The naval version of the missile was test fired from the Indian navy?Ts destroyer INS Rajput at around 11.18 a.m.

Essentially an anti-ship missile, Brahmos can also hit targets on land, the sources said.

Besides, the missile, which has multi-target capability and enjoys a manoeuverable trajectory, can be fired from a mobile platform on land.

The missile has a striking range of 290 km and weighs about three tonnes. It is eight-meter long and carries a conventional warhead weighing about 200 kg, the sources said.

Người Nhật đang cho rằng ghẻ khựa sẽ dùng chiến tranh để giải quyết xung đột trong tương lai.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1530&ncid=731&e=3&u=/afp/20041108/wl_asia_afp/japan_china_military
Sun, Nov 07, 2004
Japanese defense planners preparing for possible Chinese attacks
TOKYO (AFP) - Japan has determined China will become Asia''s top military power and charted out scenarios for a Chinese attack against Japan which could be triggered by disputes over Taiwan or energy resources.
Kyodo News agency says the outline for potential Chinese attacks is part of a confidential report on Japan''s defense strategy drawn up by military planners in September.
The report said China would "strengthen its military capability in order to demonstrate its capability to Taiwan and the United States, and will be the greatest military power in the Asia-Pacific region in the future," Kyodo said.
In the case of a clash between China and Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, China could attack parts of Japan to prevent aid from US forces based in the country, the report said.
Under a second scenario, Beijing would try to take over disputed islands between Taiwan and Japan -- called Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China -- to rally support if public criticism challenged the communist leadership.
The report also listed a third scenario in which the Defense Agency believes China could take military action to secure its interests in the East China Sea where Tokyo and Beijing dispute the development of gas fields near their maritime boundary.
A spokesman for the Defense Agency declined comment on the Kyodo report, but confirmed the agency filed a report in September on Japan''s defense capability.
According to Kyodo, the defense planners called for diplomatic efforts to avoid conflicts with China.
The report said "economic and technological cooperation from neighboring countries is essential for a stable China," Kyodo said.
Nhật đang bàn có nên tấn công ghẻ khựa trước
In a controversial report last month, an advisory panel to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Japan should study acquiring the ability to launch pre-emptive strikes on foreign missile bases.
Japan, which is closely allied with the United States, has had a pacifist constitution since World War II, with its military known as the Self-Defense Forces.

Người Nhật đang cho rằng ghẻ khựa sẽ dùng chiến tranh để giải quyết xung đột trong tương lai.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1530&ncid=731&e=3&u=/afp/20041108/wl_asia_afp/japan_china_military
Sun, Nov 07, 2004
Japanese defense planners preparing for possible Chinese attacks
TOKYO (AFP) - Japan has determined China will become Asia''s top military power and charted out scenarios for a Chinese attack against Japan which could be triggered by disputes over Taiwan or energy resources.
Kyodo News agency says the outline for potential Chinese attacks is part of a confidential report on Japan''s defense strategy drawn up by military planners in September.
The report said China would "strengthen its military capability in order to demonstrate its capability to Taiwan and the United States, and will be the greatest military power in the Asia-Pacific region in the future," Kyodo said.
In the case of a clash between China and Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a renegade province, China could attack parts of Japan to prevent aid from US forces based in the country, the report said.
Under a second scenario, Beijing would try to take over disputed islands between Taiwan and Japan -- called Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China -- to rally support if public criticism challenged the communist leadership.
The report also listed a third scenario in which the Defense Agency believes China could take military action to secure its interests in the East China Sea where Tokyo and Beijing dispute the development of gas fields near their maritime boundary.
A spokesman for the Defense Agency declined comment on the Kyodo report, but confirmed the agency filed a report in September on Japan''s defense capability.
According to Kyodo, the defense planners called for diplomatic efforts to avoid conflicts with China.
The report said "economic and technological cooperation from neighboring countries is essential for a stable China," Kyodo said.
Nhật đang bàn có nên tấn công ghẻ khựa trước
In a controversial report last month, an advisory panel to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi said Japan should study acquiring the ability to launch pre-emptive strikes on foreign missile bases.
Japan, which is closely allied with the United States, has had a pacifist constitution since World War II, with its military known as the Self-Defense Forces.

Cái trò này của Tàu bọn Tây gọi là "buyer''s remorse", mua xong lại tiếc tiền. Không hiểu hợp đồng 2.5 tỷ đã ký rồi khi chuyển sang loại mới (nếu được chính phủ Nga đồng ý) thì anh Ba có phải chi tiền ra thêm nữa không nhỉ?
Hợp đồng này được ký từ năm 1996. Đến giờ chắc chiến lược và nhận thức của chú Ba về tương quan lực lượng ở châu Á thay đổi nên công cụ cũng phải thay đổi. SK là loại phòng không, SKM là loại tấn công.
Càng ngày càng thấy mùi ca-la-thầu của anh Ba lan toả.