U.S. Gesture Wonundefinedt Stem Military Competition in Ta

U.S. Gesture Won't Stem Military Competition in Taiwan Straits
25 April 2001
The Bush administration informed Taiwan April 23 its annual request for U.S. military equipment was approved, with the exception of its appeal for four Aegis radar-equipped destroyers.
The administration made the Aegis exception in the hopes of curbing China's military buildup, particularly Beijing's missile force, which is seen as the gravest near-term threat to Taiwan. China has been deploying an average of 50 CSS-8 and other surface-to-surface missiles per year across from Taiwan, adding to an estimated 300 already deployed. According to Bush administration officials, the United States will reconsider the outstanding Aegis request if China continues to deploy missiles aimed at Taiwan.
But Taiwan will get everything else it wants, from diesel-powered submarines *****bmarine-hunting aircraft and amphibious assault vehicles. The capabilities these weapons systems provide take aim directly at China's military strengths in the cross-Straits security competition.
Bush's decision not to sell Aegis-equipped destroyers to Taiwan amid Chinese objections is a symbolic gesture that will fail to stem the friction between the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries. Moreover, because Taipei will receive advanced armaments that aim to undercut the People's Liberation Army's relative strengths, Beijing will not scale back its wide-ranging upgrade to the armed forces, and may in fact increase its military buildup in response.
Embarked on a major military buildup, China earlier this year increased defense spending by 17.7 percent. Much of the buildup has focused on developing the capabilities needed should Beijing's 50-year desire of reuniting Taiwan with the mainland come to blows. These capabilities include building an attack submarine force to deny access to the Taiwan Straits, deploying new surface vessels such as Russian-built destroyers that could help blockade the island, ordering new Russian-built fighter aircraft to weaken Taiwan's relative air superiority and introducing an overwhelming missile force a short distance from Taiwan's capital.

A sample of the weaponry the United States has agreed to sell Taiwan.
Taiwan's newly approved American weaponry will worry Chinese military planners because the weaponry could shift the military balance toward Taiwan.
The approved package includes eight diesel-powered submarines to be built by a third country, four Kidd-class destroyers, up to 12 P-3 Orion anti-submarine warfare aircraft, Paladin self-propelled artillery systems, MH-53 minesweeping helicopters, AAV7A1 amphibious assault vehicles, MK-8 Mod-4 torpedoes, submarine- and surface-launched Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and a technical briefing on the developmental Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) mobile anti-missile system for possible future sale.
The eight diesel submarines the United States has agreed to help finance will prompt a Chinese response. One of the People's Liberation Army Navy's modernization thrusts has been in undersea warfare.
China has four diesel-powered Kilo-class attack submarines from Russia. The first installment of a Chinese version of the nuclear-powered Victor III class Russian attack submarine is nearing completion.
Submarines are a critical component of Beijing's anti-access strategy in the Taiwan Straits. A strong Taiwanese submarine force could not go unchecked.
When Taiwan will take possession of these submarines remains unclear. The arms package stipulates they will be built and delivered when Taiwan has the port facilities and operational training *****pport them.
Moreover, Germany and the Netherlands, potential sources for the diesel submarines, may be unwilling to build them for Taiwan over Chinese objections.
The submarines are not the only threat to China's undersea fleet. The P-3 Orion submarine-hunting aircraft will help Taipei track China's submarine activities in the Taiwan Straits, something Taiwan has had difficulty doing.
The Kidd-class destroyers lack the capabilities of the Aegis radar and do not have the ability to launch Standard air defense missiles from vertical launch tubes. Nonetheless, they provide Taiwan's answer to the four Sovremenny-class destroyers China is in the process of acquiring from Russia.
Submarine- and surface-launched Harpoon anti-ship missiles and new torpedoes will likewise help Taiwan chip away at China's anti-access strategy and naval blockade strategy.
Amphibious assault vehicles and Paladin artillery systems raise the specter of a future military confrontation that includes Taiwanese operations on the mainland, something Beijing must avoid *****stain its strategy. The technical briefing on PAC-3, while only the first step in upgrading Taiwan's current Patriot anti-missile force, takes direct aim at China's missile buildup across the straits, effectively doing what China sought to avoid in fighting the Aegis radar sale.
Selling Taiwan a package of new weaponry without the Aegis destroyers is an effort to provide China with an incentive to slow down its arms race with Taiwan. But focusing on the Aegis destroyers misses the unfolding reality. Taiwan will get key capabilities that would degrade China's military capabilities in a battle for Taiwan.
China will respond accordingly. It will continue its missile buildup across from Taiwan and other military developments. The negotiating chip the United States has attempted to retain will probably prove worthless. And the Aegis destroyers will find their way to Taiwan.